您的当前位置:首页 > 白银TD > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-15 18:28:22 来源:网络整理 编辑:白银TD
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
paxful手续费多少-paxful 手续费2025-05-15 19:10
ARTY币最新价格 ARTY币今日行情 ARTY币最新消息2025-05-15 19:00
ok交易平台usdt汇率appV4.022025-05-15 18:45
AI16Z币最新价格 AI16Z币今日行情 AI16Z币最新消息2025-05-15 18:16
公司出售自用车怎么开票2025-05-15 18:12
OKX Pay正式上线支持稳定币支付2025-05-15 17:12
钱包数据未同步2025-05-15 17:07
建行公务卡怎么做能提升额度啊?2025-05-15 16:56
欧意交易所安卓_欧艺交易软件官网版渠道v2.1.362025-05-15 16:43
eth云钱包2025-05-15 16:37
莱特币钱包iphone-莱特币钱包交易.官网下载.中国2025-05-15 19:05
买商铺能用公积金贷款吗-买商铺能用公积金贷款吗现在2025-05-15 19:00
上海数字货币钱包-上海数字货币钱包怎么用2025-05-15 18:52
cst币价格2025-05-15 18:07
小树时代电话审核应该怎么说呢?我已经提交申请了,马上就来审核电话了。2025-05-15 17:50
kda币总共多少2025-05-15 17:46
廊坊明天什么天气预报2025-05-15 17:38
以太坊转账多少确认2025-05-15 17:37
乐山公积金查询个人账户-乐山公积金查询个人账户查询官网2025-05-15 17:12
币团如何卖币2025-05-15 16:35